As the current of the European political river begins to quicken as European elections approach in the second half of May, there is an increasing search for ideas – and of think tank platforms to discuss them – within the Brussels beltway. Sometimes, the platforms are visible for their lobbying purpose; others are simply there trying to provide an informed assessment of trends underway and encourage these ideas to be taken account of in shaping European policy decisions in the years ahead.
An example of the latter platform was illustrated at an event which took place in Brussels earlier this week which I chaired, hosted by the European Internet Foundation (EIF) entitled “Digital Trends 2030.” Here, 3 parallel foresight projects underway presented thoughts on what the future could hold for the EU. Each of these projects underway offered a wealth of information contributing to foresight for policy makers/stakeholders, highlighting long-term trends underway and how technology can affect them. They did this in different ways.
Digital Futures: the path to 2050
Launched by DG CONNECT, the intention of this project is to view society’s aspirations for the future and the possible outcomes which this could bring (see blog 15th November 2013). Franco Accordino, Team Leader of Digital Futures, explained the stimulating nature of the project, inventing the concept of the Futurium. Looking towards the world in 2050, he indicated that 11 major themes had emerged from a collective inquiry involving thousands of participants, both from a “people” as well as “systemic” viewpoint.
Within the “people” dimension, we can expect far-reaching developments through creating organs with stem cells in order to prolong life. This will be enhanced by the use of Nanosensors to monitor our biology in real-time in order to enhance healthcare, and ultimately life expectancy and performance. The arrival of super-centenarian societies, the hyper-connected human and the concept of “cradle-to-grave, work and play” will change the way that we live our lives and the systems within which we work.
From the systemic viewpoint, broadly speaking, the influence on wealth and jobs through the enhancement of these technologies is enormous. But what of the implications to society, for example, on the increase of life expectancy or the “commoditisation” of robotics and 3D printing? Not many would turn down the prospect of living longer, but how will our economy and society cope with an ageing hyper-connected population? The expense on the welfare state could grow enormously due to an increase in the numbers of the elderly (see Syed Kamall blog of January 2014) while technology-driven productivity will have to increase if and as the workforce decreases. We will need to ensure that the individual worker becomes more productive. As the Digital futures project explained: new technologies are accelerating the change and are leading us to question the fundamentals of our economies, societies, welfare systems, and the relations between labour and education. It is fundamental to engage citizens in an attempt to understand the long term impacts of the digital transformation and the challenges and opportunities ahead.
The Digital World in 2030 Report: What place for Europe?
Publishing a document relating to long-term trends will be no new phenomenon for the European Internet Foundation. Already in September 2009, the report: ‘The Digital World in 2025’ set out long term trends to be addressed in the area of European digital policy for this legislative mandate. This document has helped the EIF over the past few years to examine key areas of concern for the digital world and provided a helpful background to draft the report ‘The Digital World in 2030: What place for Europe’, to be released in March 2014. Once available, this report will offer the new legislature and Commission a focus on Europe’s place in the Digital World and areas to which policy-makers should be sensitive.
The principal author of the report, Peter Linton, explained how convergence of technology is currently driving innovation. This avalanche of technology is becoming more adaptable and affordable than ever before. An important new trend appears to be the ‘democratisation of manufacturing’, in which digital manufacturing technologies (such as 3D printing) are making manufacturing of physical objects – even in small volumes – available and affordable to innovators.
Stemming from this vision, it is possible to conjure up an image of a self-sufficient utopian society. But what implications will this have for the economy? While some believe this will make us all better off, others claim that the internet and software could actually be making us poorer by replacing old industries with new services that are smarter, faster and cheaper (see Marc Andreessen, Wall Street Journal, January 2014). These assessments are not being made by luddites, but those involved in hi-tech fields.
ESPAS Global Trends Report
The central purpose of the European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS) is to identify the main global trends with a time horizon of 2030, assess the implications of these trends for the European Union and review the challenges and policy options facing decision makers. A document was released in the Autumn of 2013, entitled: ‘The World in 2030 Highlights’, which sets out 10 big questions which policy-makers should address (see blog of 13th December 2013). Continuing studies on current trends in the international economy, emergence of a global society and shifts in governance and power will contribute towards preparation of the ESPAS Global Trends Report 2014, to be available by mid-2014.
Apart from underscoring the need to complete the Digital Single Market, which could stimulate €250 billion a year (see blog of 17th January 2014), Chairman of the ESPAS Inter-institutional working group on the future of society, Franck Debie, stressed why technological innovation will matter more than before between 2015-2030, underlining five important issues for the EU set out below:
-
To capture clients, investments and Human Resources within the new connected global middle‐class (See, Table 1: Growth of the global middle class)
-
To capture productivity gains to re‐boost growth (See, Table 2: Productivity does not increase in the most sophisticated part of the global economy)
-
To increase labour participation (See, Table 3: Growth of the labour force between 1990 and 2020)
-
To deliver economies in education, care and health (See, Table 4: EU 27 Projected age-related expenditure (2010-2060), percentage points of GDP)
-
To offer training, decent wages and carriers outside the hyper‐productive sectors (See, Table 5: Hyper‐productive contrasts with hypo‐productive)
To see all relevant tables above please click on: ‘Why will technological innovation matter more than before (2015-2030)’.
X X X
We are in the middle of a huge revolutionary change due to the development of technology. While the future, as always unpredictable, in particular with the speed of change, it is certain that we will not live in the 21st century to our full advantage or leave an adequate world for our children without assessing the impact future technologies will have on global trends. Technology will continue to influence our economies, but it is increasingly important to take a wider view of how this will also impact our social structures, healthcare services, demography, education structures and employment systems. These three parallel foresight projects underway give policy makers and stakeholders the tools required to do just that.
